THE GREAT DEPRESSION VS THE GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS Compared

If you were to compare the great depression with the lastest credit crisis, you would see that this crisis has much more legroom to fall:

1. TGD lasted a total of 46months before managing a successful pull back...TFC has so far only lasted (from its oct 2008 high of 14000) 19 months.

2. TGD was marked by up to 7 (>20%) drops in the DOW before finally hitting its Bottom at DOW 44 (an 85% drop from its Peak) ; Comparatively, the March 2009 Low of 6500 is only 53% from the Peak of the DOW.

3. So far the Dow has only managed about 3 (~20%) drops since its oct 2007 Peak.....this in comparison to TGD is still way off the mark.....AND if the macro economic picture is anything to go by, there will be MORE 20% drops to come before we hit the true bottom.

Finally, I postulate a drop of 20-30% from this Bear market rally; from a high of 8500 to test the lows of 6000 probably by the end of June 2009.

As a word of caution, do not be tricked into this rally.....even after the bottom in 1933 of TGD, it took the market almost 8 years to get back past its peak....

We are only about 19 months into this current recession, based on the width and depth of the recession, only the Great depression can be considered its rival. There will likely be at least 12 more months of severe dips before the bottom will be even visible.

Look for DOW at <3500>